In the past few years, various online sources have implied Hammond is more dangerous than any other city in Louisiana. Though each article provides statistical data to reinforce these claims, professionals in the field of criminal justice question the validity of these conclusions.
“Some numbers on the internet from some site that I’ve never heard of, I wouldn’t use that to determine whether or not I feel safe,” said Patrick Gipson, police lieutenant for the University Police Department.
The Lion’s Roar / Cyprien Campeaux
On Sept. 4, 2014, homesecurityshield.org published a list of “10 Most Dangerous Cities in Louisiana,” of which Hammond took first place. The article cited some statistics to back up this claim, including that “Hammond has a crime rate of 136 per 1,000 residents” and “your chance of becoming a victim in Hammond [is] one in seven.”
However, the website fails to cite how this information was collected. There is no method of determining a “crime rate” in the field of criminal justice. The lack of credible sources and the fact that the article was published by a company that sells home security systems rouses suspicion about the article’s validity, according to Gipson.
“We don’t use anything called a ‘crime rate,”’ said Gipson. “We measure [safety] by how our community feels… If the community comes to us and says, ‘We don’t feel safe because of this,’ then we do something to address that.”
Homesecurityshield.org is not the only online resource warning about the dangers of the Hammond community. Areavibes.com is designed to analyze statistical information about cities in the United States and provide a “livability score” based on the results. Hammond received an “F” for crime rate, which was reported to be 12,677 per 100,000 residents, or 209 percent higher than the average city in Louisiana. City-data.com also uses statistical data to provide information on U.S. cities. The website cites Hammond’s overall crime rate in 2012 as 982.4 per 100,000 residents, compared to the U.S. average crime rate of 286.1.
What these websites fail to consider is the limitations that come with using statistical analysis as the primary source of information.
“[Statistics] are ‘descriptive’ of the world and can help identify patterns, trends and correlations… [but] descriptions, patterns and trends aren’t explanations or interpretations and can’t offer answers or solutions,” said Dr. Kenneth Bolton, head of the Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice and associate professor of criminal justice. “Statistical analysis has become increasingly divorced from social theory and history and is regarded by many as a theoretical and ahistorical. To the extent this is true, statistics can’t provide a full understanding of the social ‘problems’ that those who employ statistics attempt to understand.”
A common logical fallacy is the “ludic fallacy,” in which one uses simple statistical concepts to explain or predict complex real-world situations. To understand the arguments against using statistical data to explain or define social problems requires understanding of social research methods. When addressing a relatively new or unexamined topic how dangerous a city is in terms of crime, for example exploratory research is conducted. One of the purposes of exploratory research is to cast a wide net and see if any patterns appear so that further, more specific research can be done. Someone interested in assessing the safety of Hammond may send out surveys and browse census data to amass an extensive amount of information on the city and then analyze the data to look for patterns associated with crime.
Hypothetically, after analyzing the data, a researcher may discover that Hammond has a higher amount of crimes committed per 100,000 residents than surrounding cities in a given year. While this gives the researcher a good lead for further research, the information is not enough to determine whether or not Hammond is more dangerous than surrounding cities. There are many factors that could influence data that were not accounted for in the study.
For example, the fact that Hammond contains commuters from other cities could impact the numbers in a significant way. It is possible the crimes executed in Hammond are committed by people who live in other cities. A researcher would have to conduct a controlled study to account for this factor. In the academic world, a series of controlled studies would be necessary before conclusive results could be reported.
According to Bolton, “statistics work well with the view that sociologists can inform policy makers through their analytical expertise to solve social problems that occur in an otherwise healthy social system.”
However, utilizing simple statistics to explain or define complex problems can lead to misinformation and an unfair representation of the subject at hand.